To not be negative? And many have done so without our help. What's happened in the last 90 or so days is that we've seen increasing evidence of the global economy slowing down, although our own economy has continued to perform well. In the middle, you have what we call the Main Street facility, and that's for small and medium-sized businesses up to $5 billion in revenue and 15,000 employees. We also print actual currency and we distribute that through the Federal Reserve banks. And, you know, I think that's a very important part of our analysis. But of course that limits imports if American goods become too expensive. PELLEY: So the banks would pay people to borrow money, essentially? There are plenty of prime-aged people who are not in the labor force and who would be better off in the labor force. And that's because they expect to go back to their old job. But I will say that we're not out of ammunition by a long shot. The dollar is the world's reserve currency. PELLEY: Retail sales declined in December, the fastest pace since 2009. So I think at the top of the list of things that we could do to improve living standards, improving the education system is right at the top of that list. I will say that it's a reasonable assumption that the economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year, that unemployment will move down, that economic activity will pick up. If we needed to resort to our other tools, including forward guidance, including, quantitative easing, if we needed to do that, we would certainly do it. It can weigh on the economy for years. PELLEY: And that would conceivably cause more business and commerce to happen? And I think it's a reasonable expectation that there'll be growth in the second half of the year. PELLEY: Adjusted for inflation, this generation of middle Americans have not done better than their parents. When do you think you're going to be comfortable going back to a game? People lost their houses. So it's a tough time in state and local governments. So the banks have been strong so far. Many of them get fees from things like transit fees, which have to do with airports and mass transit and things like that. We've done what we can as we go. And that means people will go back to work. The sharp downturn and then rocketing right back to where we were. And I think as a country we ought to be doing those things that will enable people to succeed, whatever part of the economic world they come from. I don't think it's appropriate. Quite the reverse, actually. And I wonder if any calculations have been made about how many excess deaths are acceptable to get the economy moving again. And we talk about monetary policy as a follow on to what we discussed the day before about the economy. I would say that it is one financial condition among many that we monitor. I don't want to think though that we'll take years and years to get back to a place where we have a tight labor market, and that's what it takes to really get opportunities to less advantaged communities, low- and moderate-income communities. It doesn't have to be--. You have someone coming from the bank in San Francisco, somebody coming from the bank in Dallas, somebody coming from the bank in Minneapolis. And the same thing with businesses. POWELL: We don't comment on the valuation of the stock market particularly. We spend a great deal of resources and time on cyber resilience. I'm highly confident of that. And it's part of a larger picture of low labor force participation, particularly by young males. It's very, very hard to do it. PELLEY: A recent Gallup poll showed that more young people in America believed in socialism than capitalism. POWELL: Well, the record is if something is unsustainable and cannot go on indefinitely, it will stop. PELLEY: As this period of time grows longer, what begins to happen to the economy? PELLEY: Well, tell me what are these meetings like around this table? I think certain parts of the economy will find it very difficult to have really a lot of activity. POWELL: I believe the enhanced unemployment insurance, which again, is unprecedented in American history, it's a very large program. And we really want to avoid that. Here, really, the problems are in what we call the real economy, actual companies that make and sell goods and services. POWELL: No, I think in the sense of too big to fail, no, that's not the case. And there's no law of nature that says it will continue to hold. And it means that we are directed to execute policy in a strictly non-political way, serving all Americans. But they're closer to a normal level for a healthy economy. There's quite a lot of budget pressure there. Then, generally, the chair offers a proposal. POWELL: We have a 2% inflation target. Copyright © 2020 CBS Interactive Inc.All rights reserved. A transcript of Scott Pelley’s interview with Jerome Powell on "60 Minutes". And then, about three years ago when the economy had really begun to return to health, we very gradually raised rates to a level that's more normal in a healthy economy. And that means providing some relief and stability now. Auto default rates have actually not moved up. But they will tell you that there's a lot of uncertainty about this. And that wasn't enough. We raised liquidity standards. I will say that that we had, at the president's invitation, we had dinner. But at the same time, it could be an amplifier to a downturn. The United States is the world's reserve currency. We think of ourselves and we've always been a country where anybody can make it to the top. And we're trying to do what we can to get them through this period where they're perfectly good companies that have had, you know, sound financial condition as recently as February, but now they have no business. Not all of the tools to accomplish that are the Fed's. Default rates are low. The transcript from the Federal Reserve chairman's interview with Scott Pelley. This economy will recover. But -- so I don't give them advice on particular policies. We will never, ever take political considerations into effect. And we spent ten years strengthening it after the last crisis. SCOTT PELLEY, CBS NEWS / 60 MINUTES: There's only one question that anyone wants an answer to, and that is: when does the economy recover? I think growth this year will be slower than last year. Never happened before. POWELL: Yes. I think we'll always be moving inflation back to 2% with our policy. They're very highly capitalized. And as I mentioned, wages have moved up significantly. So when we say we're independent, what does that mean? We have a great economy. They were a key mechanism for amplifying bad things that happened. POWELL: Yes, it is. But clearly, it is falling the most on those who are least in a position to bear it. And the reason we've got to do more is to avoid longer run damage to the economy.If we let people be out of work for long periods of time, if we let businesses fail unnecessarily, waves of them, there'll be longer term damage to the economy. But in any case, the economy can continue to, can start getting better fairly soon. And we're, of course, watching that. It wasn't a light switch being flipped. U.S. educational attainment has not moved up as rapidly as it has in other countries. I think that's a win-win. So the whole body of outstanding auto loans is much larger than it was. But it would be challenging to see sustained 4% growth, again, because of the slow growth of the workforce. We have that now. And we have an unusually large number of people in their prime working years who are not in the labor force. And the spending that we're doing to support people and businesses will help us do that. So it's not a particularly popular policy, as you can imagine. We certainly hope that it's as soon as possible. I think mistakes get made when everyone agrees and no one tries to explain why the decision is incorrect. And it's a very significant problem. Really I could get you a number, but I don't have one off the top. Now, I think the pain is very widely spread. Labor leaders and right across the spectrum of American life. And just about that time, you also see median incomes, middle class incomes flattening out. What it means is that we serve long terms that are not at all synced up with the election cycle. But it brings with us a duty to seek and embrace accountability and thereby, democratic legitimacy. PELLEY: What economic reality do the American people need to be prepared for? The economy was fine. That's traditionally happened with great frequency. POWELL: My duty is one that Congress has given us, which is to use our tools to achieve maximum employment and stable prices and to supervise and regulate banks so that they treat their customers fairly and so that they're strong, well-capitalized and can perform their critical function in good times and bad. We can do that. And that is right now, unemployment is at a 50-year-low. How do we build the resilience, the redundancy in case that does happen? PELLEY: What is the danger to the budgets of states and local governments? And we're the home of so much of the great technology in the world. And we had been thinking about what we would do. How long can it last? It doesn't seem to be like that, generally. The opioid crisis is millions of people. For the last couple of years of the expansion, wage gains were the highest for people at the low end of the wage spectrum. POWELL: I don't comment on the president or any elected official. Then, assuming that the economy does begin to reopen and we do that successfully, you'll see people going back to work. And you took your vice-chair with you. If it slows down, the global economy, then we'll feel that as a headwind. And you also see lower mobility for people at the bottom end. One is just relatively low mobility. Individual participants contribute what they want to contribute to that discussion. These people can contribute to our shared prosperity, and they can also benefit from doing so. Instead, we have this situation where 20 million people have lost their jobs. POWELL: That is the issue. And I think bringing them into the labor force would enormously benefit our country. So we don't comment on the level of the dollar. POWELL: Well, as I mentioned, in the long run, I would say I would never bet against the American economy or the American people. And that would be very damaging to have to reintroduce the measures and slow the economy down again. PELLEY: Some of the best economic analysts in the world report to you. POWELL: So around this table during the last crisis and during the recovery, we looked at negative interest rates.
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