jerome powell speech today transcript

… turn that your actions are more likely to produce asset price inflation than goods and services inflation. David Gura: (14:19) I think that’s the bottom line on it. So again, I would say the fiscal support has been essential in the good progress we see now. You see it in the relative flattening out of incomes for people in lower and middle incomes as compared to those at the top. Hi there, James Politi, with the Financial Times. We understand that the work of the Fed touches communities, families, and businesses across the country. We do expect that will continue today. Greg Robb: (50:21) Preserving the flow of credit is essential for mitigating the damage to the economy and promoting a robust recovery. Fiscal policy is up to Congress, you see the ongoing discussions that they’re having and it suggests to me that both sides, they’re wrangling over various provisions but nonetheless believe that there is a need for some additional fiscal support. I think we clearly understand now that it’s something to weigh when you get a tight labor market. Well, just to follow up on that a bit, and thanks for taking my question, you added the sentence into the statement about the course of the economy depends on the path of the virus. The median inflation projection from FOMC participants rises from 1.2% this year to 1.7% next year and reaches 2% in 2023. Those are going to be the places that are very challenging. In setting monetary policy. Fiscal policy can address things that we can’t address. A 3.5% unemployment rate showed gains being shared very widely across the income spectrum. Good afternoon, Chairman Powell. So I’m not looking for a big reaction right now, but I think over time, again, guidance that we expect to retain the current stance until the economy has moved very far toward our goals is a strong and powerful thing. So, that’s really a question for Congress. Don Lee: (46:04) Speaker 3: (27:15) So, that just tells you the labor market has improved, but it’s a long, long way from maximum employment. I wanted to ask just how the framework review is working in tandem with your discussion on explicit forward guidance. I would also say this, this is all about credibility. And we have state and local governments dealing with a drop in revenue at the same time spending has gone up, much of it related to the pandemic and economic effects. I don’t know about that. Jerome Powell: (01:03:14) I think that’s the best way to think about it. Jerome Powell: (52:51) I’m sure we can do more. So it’s something that we’re doing. If you look out in the lending world, surveys generally find that firms are not citing credit constraints as a top problem. Many borrowers are benefiting from these programs as is the overall economy, but for many others, getting alone that may be difficult to repay, may not be the answer. There are always going to be issues with an economy, but the labor market really has a long way to go now. It is intuitive that high inflation is a bad thing; it’s less intuitive that inflation can be too low. I will take a look at it. That’s a great discussion. Thanks for taking my question. And I think that there’s attraction in all of those depending on the situation. We also created a coin taskforce with all of the stakeholders, banks and the armored carriers, banking community, credit unions, everybody in the coin supply chain. Speaker 4: (20:21) More broadly, however, weaker demand, especially in sectors that have been most effected by the pandemic, has held down consumer prices and overall, inflation is running well below our 2% longer run objective. You’ll see it everywhere, in all the things that we do. The pace of economic improvement has moderated since the outsize gains of May and June, as is evident in employment, income, and spending data. Can you just very briefly addressed the reports that the Treasury is advising banks to target zero losses. Thank you. I wonder how big are the risks of the unemployment rate rising and job growth turning negative this summer? Jerome Powell: (03:14) Okay. So disparities in income and in financial wellbeing by various demographic and racial categories is something we monitor carefully. That’s really what you’re doing. Jerome Powell: (54:37) The Recession and Nascent Recovery We’ve also got struggling small businesses, especially those in the business of facing directly to the public. Continues either to be flat or gradually decline. And I wouldn’t have it any other way. And the main thing again, is wearing a mask and keeping your distance while you’re in the workforce. They’ve said that they’re weighing whether to revive the Collins amendment in order to ease the tier 1 leverage ratio for banks. In terms of inequality really, I think it’s fair to say the burdens of the pandemic have fallen on … Heavily … They’ve fallen on everyone but they’ve fallen very heavily on people who work in the service industries in relatively low paying jobs. Elected officials have the power to tax and spend and to make decisions about where we, as a society, should direct our collective resources. Chris P.: (42:41) I’ll now be glad to take your questions. As I mentioned, we want, the sense of our forward guidance is that policy will remain, as we’ve said, highly accommodative until the expansion is well along, really, very close to our goals. I think in the broad scheme of things that there will be a need both for more support from us and from more fiscal policy. And that means that in a downturn, these days, what happens is inflation, as has happened now, it moves down well below 2%. So, I mean, I think the overall picture… Take a step back from this. What’s going on there is, that like many other supervisors and regulators around the world, what we found is that, we have found our banks are strong. The Committee also left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0 to 1/4 percent, and it expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels that are consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. The path forward will also depend on policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery for as long as needed. The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected. So, how did you argue back on those arguments? Yeah. Do you see merits to tying your asset purchases to economic outcomes, and would you consider both inflation and labor market conditions as part of those outcomes? In terms of the stress test, so I really don’t have any … we’re getting ready quite soon to be making announcements and saying things publicly. So I have not seen that … I did not see that blog post yet, although someone did mention it to me. And in many respects is in a good place now. And we do that, not just because it’s interesting and important, but because it’s important for the economy and important for our mandate. We want them to remain in place and be available as long as they are needed. The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected and forecasts from FOMC participants for economic growth this year have been revised up since our June summary of economic projections. Chairman Powell: (19:25) So we’ve got to deal with the economic ramifications of that. So, no, certainly we’re not out of ammo. So on the first one, what’s happening is basically we’re learning to live with right now, we’re learning to live with COVID, which still spreads. There are different ideas on how to do this, but that’s just the way it is when you have a diverse group of highly thoughtful and effective people. Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 12:01 PM EST Updated Wed, Nov 28 2018 1:56 PM EST. Jerome Powell: (13:31) Chris Rugaber: (43:40) Jerome Powell: (50:50) So there will also be the places that are affected that way. That would be tragic, especially in light of our country's progress on these issues in the years leading up to the pandemic. At this early stage, I would argue that the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. There hasn’t been much take-up, and the tools you talk about are generally in service of keeping interest rates low, where they already are. There’s no cookbook. In particular, the rise in joblessness has been especially severe for lower wage workers, for women, and for African Americans and Hispanics. So you know what the guidance says. And we believe that achieving inflation that averages 2% over time helps ensure that longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at our longer run 2% objective. They’re still well capitalized and strong, and will be I think a source of strength in this situation.

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